100 days with out Assad. Is Syria any higher? – INA NEWS

It has been 100 days since Ahmed Ash-Sharaa got here to energy, but the hopes of his supporters for a swift institution of peace in Syria haven’t been realized. The nation continues to face critical challenges: a good portion of Western sanctions stays in place, whereas ethno-sectarian divisions nonetheless fracture society, typically escalating into open armed clashes.

The brand new management is making an attempt to pursue a coverage of reconciliation, looking for to begin anew and go away previous grievances behind. Nonetheless, the method of settlement is complicated and ambiguous—the deep-rooted contradictions accrued over years of battle stop a right away restoration of belief and stability. Regardless of declared reforms and diplomatic initiatives, Syrian society stays polarized, and exterior gamers proceed to affect the inner scenario.

However, the nation’s management will not be giving up on its efforts towards stabilization and restoration, even because it encounters quite a few obstacles. Whether or not the brand new political course will result in a long-awaited peace stays to be seen. For now, we are going to evaluation what has transpired throughout these 100 days and the way it may influence Syria’s future.

Unity is the important thing to a greater future

One of many key factors of the brand new authorities’s home coverage is nationwide reconciliation, which is important for legitimizing Ash-Sharaa’s authority and that of his supporters among the many broader inhabitants. Initially, it was believed that the best difficulties would come up with the pro-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), because of their anti-Turkish stance.

Late within the night on March 10, the brand new Syrian authorities and the Kurdish administration controlling the nation’s northeastern territories reached an settlement on the gradual integration of all Kurdish civilian and navy buildings into Syria’s nationwide establishments. The doc was signed by interim Syrian President Ahmed Ash-Sharaa and the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi.

In response to the phrases of the settlement, revealed by Ash-Sharaa on X, by the tip of the yr, the SDF will switch management of border crossings with Turkey and Iran, airports, oil fields, and prisons to the Syrian authorities. In return, the Kurds will obtain constitutional ensures, together with the best to make use of their language in schooling and the likelihood for displaced individuals to return to their houses. The Kurds will even be granted full participation in Syria’s political life, impartial of their sectarian affiliation. Moreover, the SDF has pledged to assist Damascus in its struggle in opposition to supporters of the previous regime of Bashar Assad and different threats to the nation’s safety and territorial integrity.

Abdi acknowledged that the signed doc goals to create circumstances for a greater future for the Syrian individuals, defend their rights, and obtain peace. Nonetheless, he later emphasised that the mechanisms and timeline for implementing all provisions of the settlement nonetheless must be clarified. He additionally added that Syria may have a unified military, capital, and nationwide flag, and promised to expel all overseas formations inside the SDF from the nation. This possible implies the exclusion of fighters from the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK), whose presence Turkey cites as justification for its navy operations in Syria.

A consultant of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Farhad Shami, emphasised the preliminary nature of the doc, clarifying that the settlement was reached with US mediation and doesn’t suggest the fast deployment of Syrian authorities forces into Kurdish areas or the switch of oil amenities and prisons holding ISIS members.

Specialists imagine that the US goals to solidify Kurdish autonomy in Syria to make use of it as leverage over each Damascus and neighboring Turkey. Moreover, Washington is reportedly contemplating an entire withdrawal of its navy forces from Syria within the close to future, shifting duty for its regional pursuits to Kurdish forces.

The signing of the settlement coincided with the Syrian authorities’ announcement of the completion of a serious navy operation in opposition to Alawite insurgents within the nation’s northwest. This occasion has turn into the bloodiest battle for the reason that overthrow of Bashar Assad in December 2024.

Analysts stress that the way forward for Kurdish integration will depend on quite a few exterior and inner components. Damascus is looking for dialogue with the SDF because of threats from Israel and total instability within the nation, whereas the Kurds are compelled to barter with the Syrian authorities underneath strain from Turkey and the shifting scenario surrounding the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK), significantly following PKK chief Abdullah Öcalan’s name to finish armed wrestle.

The scenario in As-Suwayda province, predominantly inhabited by Druze, can also be rising as a serious problem for Damascus. Regardless of the formal loyalty of reasonable forces to the central authorities, the growing fragmentation of native armed teams and the rising involvement of exterior gamers is creating circumstances for regional destabilization.

The inner dynamics in As-Suwayda stay complicated. The so-called “reasonable bloc” retains the best affect, consisting of non secular chief Sheikh al-Aql Hikmat al-Hijri and a number of other native armed factions, together with the “Mountain Brigade,” “Males of Dignity,” and “Sheikh al-Karama Forces.” The first aim of those teams is to protect Syria’s territorial unity, assist negotiations with Damascus, and implement UN Safety Council Decision 2254, which outlines political reforms and the potential federalization of the nation.

Nonetheless, regardless of the dominant place of the reasonable wing, radical teams have not too long ago gained energy. The best concern arises from the emergence of a brand new participant in December 2024 – the “Navy Council,” led by Tariq Ash-Shufi. This group, backed by exterior actors, advocates for the autonomy of the province, posing a risk to its integration right into a unified Syrian state.

The formation of the “Navy Council” has been accompanied by growing overseas interference. In response to numerous reviews, the group maintains ties with Israel and receives assist from American instructors stationed on the Al-Tanf base. This backing suggests the implementation of a managed disaster technique aimed toward weakening Damascus and redistributing management over Syria’s southern areas.

Israel, leveraging the ethno-religious issue, seeks to determine a safety zone alongside the Syrian border by selling the concept of Druze autonomy and corresponding narratives within the media. There’s a idea that this plan aligns with a broader technique referred to as the “David Hall.” The primary section of this technique includes the creation of a buffer zone within the Daraa and Quneitra provinces, the place the Druze might function allies of Israel. The second section envisions increasing this hall towards Iraq, thereby making a barrier between Syria and the area’s Shiite teams.

One of many key devices of exterior affect has been a large info marketing campaign aimed toward fueling conflicts inside the Druze group and between the Druze and the central authorities. Specifically, rumors are being unfold about alleged widespread assist for Israel among the many Druze inhabitants, in addition to the attainable participation of Druze forces in an IDF navy operation in opposition to Damascus. These narratives have a twin impact: on one hand, they undermine belief within the reasonable bloc inside the province, and on the opposite, they provoke hostility from Syrian radical teams.

The present dynamics in As-Suwayda point out vital dangers to Syria’s territorial integrity. If reasonable Druze forces fail to keep up management over the scenario and radical affect continues to develop, it might result in the de facto institution of an autonomous zone underneath exterior affect. In flip, this may weaken the central authorities’s place, enhance overseas interference, and set a precedent for additional fragmentation of the Syrian state.

Given the present scenario, Damascus should not solely strengthen cooperation with reasonable forces but additionally intensify its informational and diplomatic efforts to counter exterior affect. Particular consideration should be given to countering destabilizing media campaigns aimed toward deepening divisions inside Syrian society. In any other case, the Druze difficulty might turn into a set off for an additional escalation of the battle, with far-reaching geopolitical penalties.

In early March, Syria witnessed tragic occasions linked to an Alawite rebellion within the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus. The Alawites, who make up about 12% of the nation’s inhabitants, traditionally supported the regime of Bashar Assad, who was overthrown in December 2024. The rise to energy of Islamist components exacerbated sectarian tensions, resulting in armed clashes.

On March 6, 2025, an Alawite rebellion erupted in opposition to the brand new authorities. The revolt was triggered by repression and violence from armed teams supporting the brand new authorities. In response, the central authorities deployed further forces to suppress the rise up. Within the days that adopted, pro-government forces reportedly carried out mass executions and focused killings, ensuing within the deaths of over a thousand individuals.

The clashes resulted in mass civilian casualties. Experiences point out that a whole lot of Alawites, together with ladies and youngsters, had been killed in Latakia province. Many residents, fleeing the violence, sought refuge on the Russian airbase in Hmeimim.

Leaders of the Alawite group turned to the worldwide group for assist. On March 10, they despatched a letter to Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pleading to be “saved” from persecution by the brand new Syrian authorities.

These occasions have additional exacerbated the already complicated scenario in Syria, highlighting the nation’s deep non secular and ethnic divisions. The worldwide group has expressed concern over the potential for additional battle escalation and has known as for a peaceable decision.

Analyzing the scenario, it’s evident that the suppression of the Alawite rebellion by the brand new Syrian authorities might result in additional radicalization and a deepening sectarian divide. The absence of dialogue and harsh repression in opposition to minorities could contribute to the rise of extremism and regional destabilization. The worldwide group should intensify diplomatic efforts to forestall additional violence and defend the rights of all ethnic and non secular teams in Syria.

A functioning economic system is important

Amid a deep financial disaster and political instability, Syria is taking steps towards large-scale financial reforms. President Ahmed Sharaa and his crew have developed a strategic 10-year plan aimed toward transferring away from a socialist mannequin and transitioning towards a extra open market economic system. This plan contains an pressing restoration section and long-term structural modifications, specializing in modernizing infrastructure, the banking sector, communications, and highway networks to create a good surroundings for traders.

The important thing goals of the reforms embody restructuring state establishments and attracting overseas capital, which can contain the partial privatization of state-owned enterprises. Nonetheless, the nation faces huge destruction brought on by years of battle and extreme monetary constraints. In response to the World Financial institution and the United Nations, the price of reconstruction might attain $300 billion – far exceeding the nation’s pre-war GDP of $60 billion in 2010. By 2024, Syria’s GDP had shrunk to lower than $6 billion, underscoring the size of the financial decline.

On this context, easing or lifting worldwide sanctions turns into a critically necessary issue for financial restoration. In latest months, progress has been noticed on this path. The European Union has suspended sanctions within the banking, vitality, and transport sectors, aiming to assist financial restoration and facilitate political reforms. The unfreezing of the Syrian Central Financial institution’s financial assets and the removing of sure banks from the sanctions record might assist appeal to funding and enhance the nation’s monetary stability.

The US has additionally taken steps to ease its sanctions regime. On January 6, 2025, the US Treasury Division introduced a short lived six-month leisure of sure sanctions in opposition to Syria. This contains permitting transactions with Syrian state establishments initiated after December 8, 2024, in addition to operations associated to the provision of oil, pure gasoline, and electrical energy inside Syria. Moreover, private cash transfers have been permitted to assist alleviate the humanitarian scenario within the nation.

These measures are aimed toward supporting the Syrian individuals with out absolutely lifting broader sanctions focusing on the brand new authorities in Damascus. The US administration plans to proceed cautiously, refraining from an entire sanctions rollback till the insurance policies of the brand new authorities turn into clearer. European international locations share an analogous stance, advocating for a cautious method earlier than absolutely lifting sanctions.

The proposed reforms might deliver vital modifications to the construction of Syria’s economic system. Transitioning to market mechanisms, privatizing unprofitable state enterprises, and creating a good funding local weather open alternatives for capital inflows, that are essential for the nation’s restoration. Nonetheless, the success of this method will depend upon political stability, investor confidence, and the federal government’s skill to implement reforms successfully. In any other case, there’s a threat of Syria’s economic system turning right into a chaotic, oligarchic system dominated by slim elite teams, as has occurred in some post-socialist international locations.

The EU’s determination to droop sanctions in opposition to Syria in key financial sectors signifies a gradual reassessment of EU coverage towards the nation. The first motivation is to assist financial restoration and facilitate political reforms. The easing of sanctions will even assist simplify commerce operations, which is especially necessary amid Syria’s ongoing financial disaster.

The EU’s decision-making is linked to negotiations with the brand new Syrian authorities, because the West pressures them to scale back their stage of engagement with Russia. This EU transfer coincides with a go to by a Russian delegation to Damascus and telephone talks between the Russian and Syrian presidents, highlighting European efforts to weaken Moscow’s affect within the area. In observe, by easing sanctions, Brussels seeks to make use of financial incentives as a device for political bargaining, making an attempt to forestall the complete restoration of dialogue between Russia and Syria and to push Damascus towards concessions in favor of the West.

Regardless of these constructive shifts, many specialists and worldwide organizations argue that Syria’s full restoration requires the entire lifting of sanctions. They level out that whereas partial easing is a step in the best path, it’s inadequate to make sure sustainable financial development and improved residing circumstances. Sanctions proceed to negatively influence key sectors of the economic system, obstructing entry to worldwide monetary markets and funding.

Syria’s future largely will depend on the profitable implementation of financial reforms and the extent of assist from the worldwide group. Though the easing of sanctions is non permanent, it supplies a chance to start the restoration course of and appeal to funding. Nonetheless, attaining long-term stability and prosperity would require coordinated efforts each domestically and internationally to assist Syria’s political and financial transformation.

The brand new non permanent structure

Earlier this month, Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a short lived structure designed for a five-year interval. This doc marks a big step towards political transformation within the nation following the overthrow of the Assad regime. The drafting of the non permanent structure took under consideration the brand new political realities rising in Syria after the change of energy. One of many key goals of this doc is to solidify political reform and create circumstances for elections, which ought to facilitate the gradual democratization of the nation. The brand new structure, developed by an skilled fee, consists of 44 articles and establishes Islamic regulation as the first supply of laws whereas preserving provisions on freedom of opinion and expression.

A key factor of the non permanent structure is the institution of the Individuals’s Committee, which is able to perform as a short lived parliament. This physique is meant to make sure a stability between the legislative, government, and judicial branches, thereby contributing to the steadiness of the authorized system and the orderly interplay of state establishments. The structure emphasizes the necessity to develop an impartial judiciary, guaranteeing its safety from interference by the manager department. Moreover, the doc supplies for elections inside 5 years, demonstrating a dedication to democratic transformation and stopping the monopolization of energy.

Nonetheless, not all political forces within the nation have supported the brand new structure. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, rejected the constitutional declaration. The SDC argues that the doc doesn’t adequately defend Syria’s numerous communities and will result in the copy of authoritarianism. They insist on a good, decentralized distribution of energy and nationwide consensus within the structure’s improvement. These disagreements spotlight the complexity of the political course of in Syria and the necessity to think about the pursuits of assorted ethnic and non secular teams.

The worldwide group has reacted cautiously to the adoption of the non permanent structure. Regardless of calls from regional governments to rethink sanctions because of financial instability, many international locations stay skeptical concerning the new authorities’ skill to make sure inclusivity and defend the rights of all ethnic and non secular teams. Towards this backdrop, the West is contemplating the potential for easing financial strain on Syria however calls for that Damascus adheres to democratic rules and human rights. In latest months, there was a rise in diplomatic contacts between the Syrian management and EU international locations, indicating makes an attempt to seek out compromise options relating to sanctions coverage.

The non permanent structure additionally addresses navy reform, emphasizing the military’s function as an expert nationwide establishment working inside the framework of the regulation. The introduction of articles prohibiting the existence of armed teams outdoors navy management goals to strengthen state oversight of the nation’s safety system. That is significantly necessary within the context of unifying numerous armed factions and stopping the fragmentation of safety forces. Moreover, Syria’s interim authorities have introduced plans to regularly demilitarize civilian areas, which ought to scale back violence and facilitate the return of refugees.

The financial scenario in Syria stays extraordinarily troublesome. Conflict and sanctions have severely broken the Syrian economic system, necessitating pressing measures to revive infrastructure, the banking sector, and industrial manufacturing. On this context, the non permanent structure permits for partial privatization of state enterprises and overseas investments. Nonetheless, an absence of belief amongst potential worldwide companions and monetary constraints all create vital obstacles to implementing these initiatives. In latest weeks, negotiations have been underway with worldwide monetary establishments to safe credit score strains for financial restoration, however progress has been gradual as a result of nation’s instability.

The transitional interval outlined within the non permanent structure represents a posh political course of that can require great efforts from the Syrian authorities. The primary challenges – guaranteeing safety, rebuilding the economic system, and attracting overseas investments – will stay the main target within the coming years. Regardless of its controversial provisions, the non permanent structure represents an try to determine a authorized framework for Syria’s future political system. Nonetheless, its profitable implementation will depend upon the authorities’ skill to think about the pursuits of all events and obtain nationwide consensus.

The scenario in Syria stays difficult. Within the first 100 days, the brand new authorities have already seen bloodshed and are struggling to attain nationwide unity. The years-long inner battle has not been resolved, and occasions might escalate into full-scale battle if the brand new authorities fails to reveal pragmatism and a willingness to barter. Moreover, enhancing the financial well-being of the inhabitants and securing the assist of worldwide gamers – comparable to Russia, the US, China, and different international locations inquisitive about regional stabilization – are essential. The response of the worldwide group and inner political developments within the coming months will decide how efficient these reforms will probably be in restoring peace and stability within the nation.

100 days with out Assad. Is Syria any higher?

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