Can Pakistan’s new anti-extremism coverage defeat rising armed assaults? – INA NEWS

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan has unveiled a brand new coverage to sort out “violent extremism” utilizing an unlikely bouquet of instruments, together with college curriculum modifications, faith and social media outreach, along with navy techniques, at a time when lethal armed assaults are surging.

Nonetheless, many analysts warning that the plan is just too formidable, skinny on particulars and troublesome to execute underneath the general management of a military attuned to utilizing navy drive as its main weapon. Some specialists argue that the Nationwide Prevention of Violent Extremism (NPVE) Coverage, as the brand new plan known as, is in impact “outdated wine in a brand new bottle”.

The newest coverage, launched for public view final week, comes at a time of escalating violence, notably within the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan.

Based on figures from the Middle for Analysis and Safety Research (CRSS), an Islamabad-based assume tank, 2024 was the deadliest 12 months in practically a decade for Pakistan. The info reveals that 2,526 individuals had been killed in assaults final 12 months – together with practically 700 safety personnel, greater than 900 civilians, and roughly 900 armed fighters.

The vast majority of these assaults had been carried out by the Pakistan Taliban, identified by the acronym TTP, an armed group ideologically linked to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The TTP has been waging an armed insurrection towards Pakistan since its emergence in 2007.

Whereas Pakistan has launched comparable anti-extremism frameworks previously, the brand new 71-page doc [PDF]ready by the Nationwide Counter Terrorism Authority – an autonomous authorities physique answerable for intelligence gathering, risk assessments, and counterterrorism methods – is completely different, mentioned Dayyab Gillani, NACTA’s director of analysis and improvement.

The important thing shift, based on him, is that the brand new coverage promotes a “whole-of-society” technique to stop “violent extremism”, together with utilizing “non-kinetic” means. In navy terminology, kinetic measures seek advice from armed drive.

“The so-called struggle on terror has taught us that navy operations alone will not be a sustainable technique. Kinetic successes are solely short-term, as they fail to eradicate terrorism at its roots,” Gillani informed Al Jazeera throughout a current interview in Islamabad. “The causes and drivers of terrorism had been by no means eliminated, which is why terrorism has resurfaced repeatedly, regardless of short-term positive factors.”

What does the NPVE Coverage say?

Gillani, who joined NACTA two years in the past, mentioned work on the NPVE initially started in 2019, however political instability delayed its completion till 2024. The coverage was accredited by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s cupboard in December.

The coverage presents a “5-R” method – Revisit, Attain Out, Scale back, Reinforce, and Reintegrate – with a sequence of 700 corporate-style key efficiency indicators (KPIs) to measure effectiveness within the quick, medium and long run.

The primary coverage motion, “Revisit”, focuses on reforming the curriculum and interesting youth and influencers like academics and spiritual leaders. “Attain Out” goals to advertise a nationwide narrative by way of media and by countering hardline narratives on social media.

“We reside within the age of social media, which has grow to be a significant software for radicalisation,” Gillani mentioned. “This necessitates a revamped communication technique.”

“We should foster a tradition of tolerance, acceptance, and inclusion, the place individuals respect social, political, and spiritual variations with out resorting to violence,” he added.

“Scale back” targets youth and girls by way of peace initiatives and analysis on ladies’s roles in armed insurrection. “Reinforce” seeks to advertise peace and tolerance by way of arts, tradition, and scientific innovation.

The ultimate coverage motion, “Reintegrate”, includes de-radicalisation, rehabilitation, and reconciliation programmes for former fighters and conflict-affected communities.

“A state’s elementary duty in direction of its residents is to offer take care of them. Non-kinetic measures, that are empathetic in nature and method, is what the federal government must deal with in an effort to counter extremism,” Gillani mentioned.

Navy operations and outdated insurance policies

Pakistan has confronted twenty years of armed violence and has launched a number of navy operations to fight armed teams.

Following the 9/11 assaults and the following United States invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan turned a refuge for Taliban leaders and al-Qaeda members fleeing Afghanistan.

After the TTP gained floor in Pakistan, the military launched a number of campaigns to eradicate them and regain management of the territory. Nonetheless, it was not till the 2014 assault on the Military Public College in Peshawar, through which greater than 140 kids had been killed, that the federal government formulated a Nationwide Motion Plan (NAP) – considered one of its first formal frameworks to counter armed insurrection. Related insurance policies have since been launched and up to date.

However Gillani argued that these earlier insurance policies had been “reactive” and primarily targeted on kinetic measures, making the NPVE’s preventive and community-based method distinctive.

“Neighborhood engagement is crucial to success. Kinetic measures depart lasting scars on communities which have suffered violence,” he mentioned. “That’s why we emphasise prevention.”

Coverage implementation challenges

However whereas analysts acknowledge that the NPVE strikes a steadiness between navy and non-military methods — not less than on paper — they warn that the coverage’s formidable scope poses implementation challenges.

“Pakistan has a historical past of well-intentioned insurance policies failing on account of poor implementation. The success of this coverage will depend on whether or not the state ensures its correct execution,” mentioned Abdul Basit, a analysis fellow on the S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research in Singapore.

Related considerations had been raised by Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a platform monitoring regional safety.

“This coverage acknowledges that mental capital is as essential as navy motion, as ideologies are sometimes extra influential than weapons. Nonetheless, the coverage’s implementation framework lacks the rigour required to attain its targets,” mentioned Firdous, who relies in Peshawar.

On the coronary heart of these implementation challenges is a central query: Who will get to execute the coverage?

Civilian vs navy management

Though NACTA is a civilian establishment, Pakistan’s safety insurance policies have traditionally been dominated by its highly effective navy, which has dominated the nation immediately for greater than three many years and continues to wield vital affect even over civilian governments.

“At a time when the navy’s fast affect in nearly all features of society is seen, NACTA isn’t any exception, so when a non-militarised framework to cope with violent extremism is carried out by the navy, who can assure its success?” Basit, the Singapore-based educational, mentioned.

Firdous concurred that navy oversight over the coverage would increase considerations.

“How can NACTA function successfully whether it is perceived to be encroaching on the jurisdiction of different regulation enforcement companies? Can a civilian-led NACTA be accepted in a system dominated by the navy? These are essential questions that should be answered for consensus constructing and for implementing the coverage,” he added.

Rohan Gunaratna, a professor of safety research on the S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research, argued that the brand new coverage additionally suffers from one other flaw.

It’s essential for Pakistan to develop “tailor-made coverage choices” that cater to the precise wants of every group of the society, he mentioned.

“Whereas the NPVE Coverage can function a complete guideline, it requires region-specific fashions to handle the distinctive challenges confronted by completely different teams and areas,” Gunaratna informed Al Jazeera. “A one-size-fits-all method received’t work.”