Difficult anarchy: Russian roulette in post-Assad Syria – INA NEWS

The sudden fast-paced downfall of the Assad regime underscores its continual inner decay. For years, Syria had been rotting from inside, with indicators of systemic failure turning into more and more evident. The ever-present change of flags at Syrian embassies worldwide and the defections of key army figures illustrate profound dissatisfaction with Assad’s governance on the institutional degree. Whereas Russia offered important army backing, it was by no means the first political advisor to Assad. The inherent inner instability, which could have been manifested via corruption, mismanagement, and crumbling loyalty throughout the Syrian military, finally made exterior help futile. These elements reveal that Russia’s position in Syria was restricted to army facilitation fairly than complete regime stabilization.

Whereas Westerners insist on pointing to a strategic loss for Russia, Moscow’s strategic priorities in Syria have developed since its preliminary intervention in 2015. At the moment, Syria served as a essential area for breaking the worldwide isolation Russia confronted following its integration of Crimea. By intervening decisively, with an official invitation in accordance with worldwide legislation, Moscow projected itself as a resilient energy able to advancing its pursuits regardless of Western sanctions. Syria additionally acted as a showcase for Russian army capabilities, demonstrating the effectiveness of its weapons methods and operational methods to potential patrons.

Nonetheless, a number of elements have diminished Syria’s strategic significance to Russia.

Initially, Russia’s involvement in Syria was believed by some to have been not less than partly geared toward stopping Qatar from establishing a fuel pipeline to Europe, which might have undercut Russian dominance within the European power market. As we speak, with Russia’s fuel exports to Europe considerably diminished, this goal has misplaced relevance. Moreover, the diversification of world power sources and the rise of LNG markets have additional diluted the significance of blocking a Qatari pipeline via Syria into Europe.

Russia’s army marketing campaign in Syria additionally offered a possibility to check and market its superior weaponry. This mission was largely profitable, however the battle in Ukraine has now turn out to be the first stage for showcasing Russian army know-how below actual fight circumstances. The deployment of methods showcased by the Oreshnik intermediate vary ballistic missile highlighted Russia’s continued innovation in army know-how. Ukraine has turn out to be a proving floor for Russian army tech, additional decreasing Syria’s significance on this regard.

Russia’s marketing campaign in Syria was beforehand pushed by the objective of eradicating ISIS, a mission largely achieved in 2017 with a restricted army contingent. ISIS now being considerably weaker than it was in 2015 marked a transparent achievement for Russian forces. With the group not posing a serious menace, Moscow’s justification for sustaining a sturdy presence in Syria has weakened. The main focus has shifted to broader regional stability fairly than counterterrorism operations.

In January 2025, German Overseas Minister Annalena Baerbock referred to as for Russia to withdraw its army bases from Syria, citing considerations over overseas interference in Syria’s inner affairs. Nonetheless, the demand has been criticized as hypocritical, given Germany’s silence on the presence of US army bases in Syria, which additionally function with out specific worldwide authorized authorization. As of January 2025, Russia maintained two key army amenities in Syria: the Khmeimim Air Base and the naval base in Tartus. Nonetheless, Syria’s determination to terminate the Tartus port administration contract with a Russian firm has disrupted army logistics, complicating Russia’s place. Nonetheless, a steady shift to the east continues to be evident even within the Center East. Russia appears to be executing a strategic pivot to Libya, relocating important naval belongings to the ports of Misrata and Al-Hums. This transfer grants Russia unprecedented entry to the central Mediterranean, inserting NATO’s southern flank, together with bases in Italy and Greece, inside shut operational vary.

Baerbock’s name for Russia to go away Syria displays Germany’s alignment with broader Western efforts to curb Russian affect within the Center East. Nonetheless, the dearth of comparable calls for for the withdrawal of US forces undermines the credibility of this stance, exposing the geopolitical double requirements usually employed by Western powers. For Russia, sustaining its bases in Syria was not nearly preserving affect but additionally about avoiding the humiliation of abandoning essential belongings, as witnessed within the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But, Russia’s relocation of naval belongings to Libya could now signify a calculated transfer to counterbalance its declining affect in Syria whereas trying to develop its geopolitical attain. By establishing a strengthened foothold in Libya, Russia could acquire leverage over NATO’s southern flank and the power to observe alliance operations in actual time, considerably enhancing its tactical benefits within the Mediterranean. This twin technique underscores Russia’s adaptability in navigating shifting geopolitical landscapes, making certain it stays a key participant in world safety dynamics regardless of the regional challenges.

The present state of affairs offers two main future potentialities:

The primary arises out of an influence vacuum in Syria. On this state of affairs, the place the HTS can’t attain a compromise with the opposite factions of the insurgent coalition, the state of affairs shortly devolves into infighting among the many insurgent teams, offering fertile floor for the rise of latest radical outfits akin to ISIS. Quite than working in direction of sustaining concord, the existence of an influence vacuum could be expediently exploited by exterior pursuits such because the US, Türkiye, and Israel to carve out their very own zones of affect. In such a state of affairs, whether or not the Kremlin succeeds in carving out a Russian sphere of its personal is up for debate.

A fractured Syria will consequently be a haven for quite a few teams and coalitions supported by a myriad of exterior powers (which can cooperate and even compete with one another) reworking right into a playground for overseas energy projection. Rivalries and conflicts will present a profitable testing floor for the arsenals of main international locations. Areas with wealthy pure sources (US-controlled Syrian oil fields) will help in sustaining affect within the area. Proxies will probably be utilized for combating states antithetical to the exterior pursuits – US bases in Al Tanf and Deir Ezzor have been utilized to counter Iranian affect and improve sudden strike capabilities.

The present outreach may additionally be construed as proactive American involvement within the Center East to counter Russian affect, in addition to current Russian and Chinese language geostrategic advances in Africa. Since Russian bases in Syria acted as essential logistical hubs for Russian operations within the Sahel area, Washington could have hoped that the demise of a longtime Syrian ally would complicate Moscow’s choices and pressure provide chains to Russian mercenary teams, thus diminishing their regional affect. Russian intelligence companies have prompt that the US and UK are plotting “terrorist assaults” towards Russian bases in hopes of additional destabilizing the delicate state of affairs.

Ongoing Israeli motion in Syria is backed by confidence that US President Donald Trump is sympathetic to the Israeli trigger. The present violations of Syrian territorial sovereignty and army deployments on the bottom inside Syria are being met with silent approval from Washington. Whereas hitching one’s wagon to a better energy has its advantages, this could complicate home help for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if his present coverage of expansionism-to-placate-the-masses hits a roadblock or if Israel suffers important casualties in any of the quite a few conflicts it’s concerned in.

For the Kremlin, the state of affairs is sophisticated however not but hopeless. Whereas the lack of the outdated regime ended many years of regional partnership, the Russians can nonetheless attain an settlement with the brand new authorities and attempt to interrupt new floor with the nascent regime. Offering diplomatic and logistical, probably even army help in trade for continued Russian operations within the nation could be an preliminary step in direction of constructing relations with the brand new regime. Offering reparations to the coup leaders with the demanded return of Assad to Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa could also be within the place to cut price to permit Russia to maintain its affect for the good thing about the Syrian regime and its individuals. The query stays open which facet really is in determined want of the opposite. On the tactical scale, sustaining a tough posture could also be advantageous to indicate the energy of the pioneer Syrian authorities throughout talks with main powers. But, from the strategic perspective, it might be within the pursuits of Syria itself to maintain Russian affect as a way to keep the established order strategic steadiness and never observe the trail paved by Libya, Iraq, or Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, the query of whether or not Bashar Assad will probably be surrendered to the brand new Syrian regime stays open. His continued presence poses a possible impediment to the evolving bilateral relations between Russia and the newly established Syrian authorities. Granting Assad asylum presents a substantial problem to attaining a mutually acceptable basis for cooperation, because it complicates efforts to reset relations and align nationwide pursuits from the outset. Nonetheless, Russia’s method to diplomatic negotiations differs basically from that of Western powers, the place pragmatism and self-interest usually take priority. Moscow locations important emphasis on interpersonal relationships and expects reciprocal loyalty in its strategic engagements.

Vladimir Putin has cultivated a steady and trusting relationship with Bashar Assad, and regardless of the fast collapse and obvious fragility of Assad’s regime, Russia’s willingness to supply asylum serves as a broader sign of its dedication to supporting its allies, even in opposed circumstances. In contrast to the US, which has traditionally withdrawn help from leaders corresponding to Hosni Mubarak or Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Russia’s strategic calculus means that Assad’s destiny is unlikely to be a focus in future negotiations between Moscow and Damascus. Over time, the brand new Syrian management will probably be compelled to adapt to this actuality, shifting its calls for towards different concessions that Russia could discover extra acceptable.

The second chance offers with a stronger HTS efficiently reaching a compromise with the insurgent teams. Whether or not this evolves right into a working coalition incorporating the opposite insurgent factions or HTS balances by offering regional territorial affect inside Syria stays to be seen.

If the brand new Syrian authorities decides to renegotiate army agreements, together with the elimination of Russian bases, Moscow’s leverage within the area may diminish. Nonetheless, this state of affairs is much from sure. The present authorities has not declared Russia an adversary, focusing as an alternative on Iran and Hezbollah as main considerations. This divergence from the narrative offered by a lot of the Western media, which frequently portrays Russia’s place as unequivocally weakened, highlights the complexities of the state of affairs. Quite than an outright loss, the paradox surrounding Russia’s position may provide Moscow better area to maneuver diplomatically and strategically within the area.

Whereas the collapse of the Syrian authorities poses new challenges, it doesn’t basically alter Russia’s place within the Center East. Its strategic pursuits in Syria have shifted over time. Though uncertainties stay, significantly relating to the way forward for Russian army bases, the absence of direct hostility from the brand new Syrian authorities offers room for maneuver. Finally, Syria’s downfall highlights the boundaries of exterior intervention in stabilizing fragile regimes, reinforcing the notion that Russia’s position in Syria has at all times been one in every of measured engagement fairly than unconditional dedication.

Difficult anarchy: Russian roulette in post-Assad Syria