Pakistan watches with warning as outdated ally Taliban will get nearer to India – INA NEWS

Islamabad, Pakistan – When the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021, then-Prime Minister of Pakistan I.an Khan famously mentioned the Afghan group had “damaged the shackles of slavery” as they returned to energy for the primary time since 2001.

Taliban’s ascension was seen as a lift to the regional affect of Pakistan, lengthy considered the patron of the Afghan group in pursuit of “strategic depth” for Islamabad.

This doctrine mirrored Pakistan’s navy curiosity in sustaining a strategic maintain over Afghanistan by way of the Taliban and utilizing it as leverage in opposition to India, its conventional adversary.

Three years later, that calculation seems to have flopped, as an alternative leaving Pakistan’s officers fuming at ties with Kabul even because the Taliban edges nearer to an unlikely companion: India.

India’s International Secretary Vikram Misri met performing Afghan International Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai final week, marking the highest-profile public engagement between New Delhi and the Taliban. That assembly adopted a sequence of steps taken by each side that counsel a dramatic break from 1 / 4 century of animus and mistrust rooted in Pakistan’s assist of the Taliban.

If this shift results in an enlargement of Indian affect in Afghanistan, that would pressure Islamabad-Kabul ties, warned Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a portal monitoring regional safety points. “In the end, the Afghan individuals, reliant on Pakistan’s borders, will bear the brunt of this tug-of-war,” he instructed Al Jazeera.

Previous buddy, new companion

From the Eighties when it backed the mujahideen in opposition to the Soviet Union by way of the primary 20 years of the twenty first century, Pakistan was a main backer of the Taliban, a lot of whose leaders discovered shelter on Pakistani soil.

India, against this, seen the group as a Pakistani proxy, shuttering its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban first got here to energy in Afghanistan in 1996. It blamed the Taliban and its present allies within the authorities, together with the Haqqanis, for repeatedly attacking Indian diplomatic missions in Afghanistan — the embassy in 2008 and 2009, and the Indian consulates in Jalalabad in 2013, Herat in 2014 and Mazar-i-Sharif in 2015.

But, a decade later, these equations not stand.

December 2024 noticed Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanging strikes on one another’s territories, as Pakistan confronted its deadliest 12 months of violence, notably in opposition to its legislation enforcement, since 2016. Pakistan mentioned it was concentrating on Afghan bases of the Pakistan Taliban armed group, identified by the acronym TTP, which Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring.

In the meantime, India appeared to have recalibrated its strategy, participating diplomatically with Taliban officers.

The primary vital assembly came about in Kabul in November 2024, when JP Singh, joint secretary of India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs overseeing the Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran desk, met performing Afghan Defence Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob.

Every week later, the Taliban nominated Ikramuddin Kamil as their envoy to New Delhi, although India is but to formally recognise the present rulers of Kabul.

And after final week’s assembly between Misri and Muttaqi, the Ministry of International Affairs described India as a “vital regional and financial companion”.

‘Geography doesn’t change’

Some Pakistani analysts say Islamabad has no cause to fret — a minimum of but.

Asif Durrani, a former Pakistani particular consultant to Afghanistan, mentioned that Pakistan and Kabul share a relationship deeper than what New Delhi and Kabul share. “India left Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover and has now returned upon assessing mutual enterprise alternatives. Each India and Afghanistan are sovereign nations free to forge ties,” Durrani instructed Al Jazeera. “Pakistan could not object except these relations develop into inimical to its pursuits,” he added.

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, United States, and the UK, echoed this sentiment.

“Landlocked Afghanistan relies upon principally on Pakistan for commerce in addition to transit commerce. Geography doesn’t change simply because India now seeks nearer ties with Kabul,” she instructed Al Jazeera.

However whereas Afghanistan’s geography hasn’t modified, a lot else has, lately.

Whereas India has poured in additional than $3bn in Afghanistan over the last 20 years, the first commerce route for the Afghan authorities stays the Pakistani border, the place tensions have been escalating, as Islamabad’s worries about TTP assaults have grown.

The TTP, based in 2007, shares ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban and has waged a violent revolt in opposition to Pakistan. Information from final 12 months confirmed greater than 600 assaults in Pakistan, leading to about 1,600 deaths, together with almost 700 legislation enforcement personnel. Most of those assaults had been claimed by the TTP.

Pakistan has held a number of conferences with Afghan authorities, together with a go to by its particular consultant, Mohammad Sadiq, in December after a TTP assault killed 16 Pakistani troopers.

Nevertheless, throughout Sadiq’s go to, who’s serving his second tenure on this function, Pakistan’s navy launched air assaults in Bermal, a district bordering Pakistan. The Afghan authorities, which denies sheltering armed teams, acknowledged that the strikes killed a minimum of 46 individuals, together with girls and kids. Merely days later, Afghan Taliban retaliated, saying they focused “a number of factors” in Pakistan.

Lodhi pointed to Sadiq’s reappointment as particular consultant as an indication of efforts to restore ties. “Pakistan and Afghanistan are diplomatically re-engaging to reset relations after a 12 months of intense tensions. Improved relations are a strategic crucial for each nations,” she mentioned.

However the assembly between Misri and Muttaqi final week additionally included a dialog on a topic that some consultants say might be one other layer of complexity to Pakistan’s ties with the Afghan Taliban: growth of Iran’s Chabahar port by India.

The Chabahar issue

The Afghan International Ministry, in its assertion on the assembly between Muttaqi and Misri, mentioned they spoke about enhancing commerce utilizing Chabahar port, which will help in any other case landlocked Afghanistan bypass Pakistan to obtain and ship items.

Chabahar is in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, simply throughout the border from Pakistan’s Balochistan province — a resource-rich a part of the nation the place Islamabad has lengthy battled separatist teams. Many of those rebels have sought refuge in Iran.

Iran launched air raids on Pakistani soil in January 2024, concentrating on alleged hideouts of anti-Tehran armed teams which have discovered shelter in Balochistan. Pakistan additionally retaliated with its strikes.

Whereas tensions between Iran and Pakistan following these strikes eased, Islamabad has lengthy accused New Delhi of fomenting the Baloch nationalist motion.

Pakistan has cited the 2016 arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav, alleged by Islamabad to be an Indian spy working in Balochistan. India denies the costs, claiming Yadav was kidnapped from Iran.

“Indian involvement in Balochistan and its assist for separatists is a longstanding Pakistani narrative, underscored by Yadav’s seize,” Firdous mentioned.

In opposition to that backdrop, “references to Chabahar port and its involvement in Afghan-Indian commerce can be seen by Pakistan as interventionist,” the Peshawar-based analyst added.