Syria is on the verge of changing into a failed state. There’s just one method to put it aside – #INA
Greater than two weeks have handed since Bashar Assad left Syria, but occasions surrounding his departure stay shrouded in thriller. Questions on why it occurred, who stands to learn, and what the longer term holds for Syria proceed to captivate the worldwide neighborhood.
The workplace of the previous Syrian president, ousted throughout an offensive by opposition forces, launched a press release in his title. Based on the assertion, Assad remained in Damascus till the early hours of December 8, departing the nation later that night. He emphasised that his departure was unplanned and didn’t happen within the remaining hours of the battle. After insurgent forces entered Damascus, Assad, “in coordination with Russian allies,” relocated to Latakia to supervise army operations. Nevertheless, upon arriving on the Khmeimim airbase, it turned evident that Syrian forces had absolutely retreated from all positions and that the final strongholds of the military had fallen. The assertion revealed that, dealing with the impossibility of leaving the bottom, Moscow requested the fast evacuation of the previous president to Russia, which was carried out on the night of December 8.
In his assertion, Assad asserted that in these occasions, he by no means thought-about resignation or searching for asylum, nor did he obtain any such gives. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that remaining in workplace after the federal government was seized by “terrorists” had turn into futile. Assad reaffirmed his deep connection to Syria and its individuals, expressing hope that the nation would in the future regain its freedom and independence.
Experiences of Assad and his household residing in Moscow have been confirmed on December 8 by the TASS information company, citing a Kremlin supply. Based on the supply, the previous president was granted asylum on “humanitarian grounds.” Assad is reportedly accompanied by his spouse, Asma, and their three youngsters: sons Hafez and Karim, and daughter Zein. Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to touch upon Assad’s whereabouts however famous that such a call couldn’t have been made with out the involvement of the Russian president. Later, the Syrian Embassy in Moscow confirmed Assad’s presence within the Russian capital. Deputy International Minister Sergey Ryabkov clarified that the previous Syrian chief had been transported to Russia by the most secure means potential and is now underneath safety.
The circumstances of Assad’s departure and its implications for Syria’s future stay unclear. Because the nation grapples with the aftermath of his exit, the world watches intently, pondering whether or not this marks the start of a brand new chapter of peace or a deeper descent into uncertainty.
What does the Kremlin suppose?
On September 30, 2015, in response to an official request from Assad, Russia made the choice to supply army help to Syria, deploying its air power and a restricted army contingent to fight terrorist organizations. Moscow’s major goal was to revive peace and stability in Syria, paving the best way for the nation’s return to normalcy. The Russian intervention turned a pivotal second within the Syrian battle, underscoring the Kremlin’s dedication not solely to supporting army efforts but additionally to initiating a political course of geared toward resolving the disaster.
Russia emerged as a key driving power behind the Syrian peace course of in Astana, providing its sources to facilitate intra-Syrian negotiations. Moreover, Moscow performed a vital position in enhancing Syria’s relations with Arab international locations, contributing to its reintegration into the Arab League. Russian diplomacy additionally sought to foster dialogue between Damascus and Ankara; nonetheless, Assad’s inflexibility and lack of dedication to compromise hindered the success of those efforts.
From Russia’s perspective, stabilizing the state of affairs in Syria held immense strategic significance. Syria was seen as a cornerstone for bolstering Russia’s affect within the Center East, which enabled the institution and enlargement of Russian army bases in Tartus and Latakia. These bases not solely ensured Russia’s army presence but additionally symbolized its willpower to stay a major participant within the area.
A press release by Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov on Might 4, 2016, encapsulated the essence of Russia’s coverage: “Assad just isn’t our ally, by the best way. We help him within the battle in opposition to terrorism and in preserving the Syrian state, however he isn’t an ally in the identical sense that Türkiye is for the USA.” Lavrov clarified that Russia’s precedence was the preservation of Syria’s state establishments relatively than supporting Assad as a person. This stance was echoed in a Russian diplomatic assertion on March 27, 2016, which warned that Assad’s departure may result in a collapse of governance in Syria, harking back to the Libyan situation.
By late 2024, the state of affairs took a dramatic flip when Assad introduced his intention to step down as a part of a negotiated course of involving battle stakeholders. On December 8, 2024, Russia’s International Ministry said that Moscow had not participated in these negotiations however urged all events to hunt a peaceable decision and keep away from violence, supporting an inclusive political course of according to UN Safety Council Decision 2254.
Assad’s resignation and the formation of a brand new authorities marked a major chapter in Syria’s historical past. Representatives of the brand new management expressed a need to strengthen relations with Russia primarily based on mutual pursuits. Anas al-Abdah, a member of the political committee of the Nationwide Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, voiced hope that cooperation with Moscow would lay the groundwork for rebuilding Syria’s financial system, training system, and healthcare sector.
President Vladimir Putin, in a speech on December 19, outlined Russia’s place with readability. He emphasised that Russia had achieved its major goal in Syria: stopping the institution of a terrorist enclave inside the Arab Republic. Putin reiterated that Russia’s army presence in Syria started in 2015 on the official request of Damascus and was geared toward combating terrorist teams. Regardless of makes an attempt to border the state of affairs as a failure for Russia, the president pressured that the mission succeeded in stabilizing the area and curbing the unfold of terrorism each inside the Center East and past.
Putin additionally remarked that many teams beforehand engaged in fight in opposition to Syrian authorities forces have undergone vital modifications. Notably, a number of European international locations and the US have begun expressing curiosity in normalizing relations with these teams. The Russian president emphasised that if these organizations had remained purely terrorist in nature, they’d not have attracted the eye of exterior gamers. This, he famous, signifies substantial shifts of their ideology and construction.
Putin additional highlighted that Russia’s bases in Syria may proceed working, together with facilitating humanitarian assist supply to Syrian residents. Nevertheless, the choice to take care of these army bases would rely on the political state of affairs within the nation, notably the stance of the brand new Syrian management concerning Russia’s presence.
The president additionally mentioned the method of evacuating Russian army personnel from distant deployment factors the day after Assad’s regime fell. Based on media stories, Russian authorities reached out to their Turkish counterparts to safe secure passage for troops by way of areas managed by Türkiye. This step, Putin defined, was a part of a broader technique to make sure the security of Russian personnel and mitigate potential threats.
Moreover, Putin supplied particulars concerning the fall of Aleppo, the place, in response to him, armed opposition forces took the town with out resistance. This was adopted by the fast advance of Syrian militants towards Damascus. Throughout this era, Russia’s help centered on evacuating roughly 4,000 fighters from pro-Iranian teams from the Khmeimim airbase to Tehran. Putin underlined that Russia didn’t deploy floor troops throughout the battle, leaving all floor operations to Syrian authorities forces and their pro-Iranian allies.
Certainly, if Russia retains its army bases in Syria, it’s going to discover itself in an advantageous place. The curiosity proven by Syria’s new management underscores Moscow’s continued position, not solely in resolving the Syrian battle but additionally in shaping Center Jap regional politics. This reaffirms Russia’s capability to stay a key participant on the worldwide stage.
What lies forward for Syria?
Following Assad’s resignation, the chief of the coalition that ousted him, Abu Mohammed al-Julani of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, designated as a terrorist group and banned in Russia and different international locations), introduced his intention to unify the nation. Nevertheless, it stays unclear whether or not he can obtain this bold aim.
The UN particular envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has referred to as on all Syrian factions and teams to cooperate, noting that their latest statements provide a glimmer of hope. On the identical time, he acknowledged the intense challenges in establishing “regulation and order” inside the nation. Syria’s state of affairs is evolving quickly, making it exceedingly tough to foretell its future.
One urgent query is whether or not HTS can obtain broader unity with different Syrian opposition forces. Deep ideological divisions between this radical group and different opposition actions stay a serious impediment to consolidation.
Not too long ago, the Syrian armed opposition tasked Mohammed al-Bashir with forming a brand new transitional authorities. Nevertheless, this appointment has already sparked disagreements inside the opposition, as many factions declare the choice was made with out their enter. Such unilateral actions deepen divisions and threaten the delicate prospects of political transition.
Regardless of HTS’s latest declarations of willingness to cooperate, its radical Islamist ideology stays a major barrier to collaboration with extra reasonable teams such because the Free Syrian Military (FSA) and Western-backed political constructions. Whereas the frequent enemy in Assad had as soon as united opposition forces, the prospect of energy and useful resource distribution following Damascus’s fall has intensified inner contradictions.
As an illustration, the Moscow Platform of the Syrian opposition said that monopolizing selections and ignoring authorized frameworks, together with UN Safety Council Decision 2254 and the present Syrian structure, may severely undermine the objectives of the revolution. Based on them, the Syrian individuals don’t want to transition from one dictatorship to a different.
In the meantime, HTS continues to say its declare to management inside the opposition and is unlikely to share energy with different factions. Its chief, al-Julani, is predicted to suppress any makes an attempt at competitors, which may result in additional conflicts inside the opposition.
Including to the complexity are regional and ethnic dynamics. In southern Syria, tribal armed teams have traditionally rejected the authority of the Assad clan and are unlikely to undergo a brand new authorities in Damascus. Within the east, remnants of the terrorist group Islamic State proceed to function and pose a menace, with the US conducting common army strikes in opposition to them.
Within the northeast, Kurdish forces, supported by the US, management massive swaths of territory. These forces have ceaselessly clashed with Turkish-backed Syrian factions, and combating on this area has as soon as once more flared up in latest days.
Past home gamers, opposition organizations and alliances which have fashioned outdoors Syria throughout the years of conflict may additionally play a major position. Nevertheless, whether or not these entities will return to Syria and take part within the political transition stays unsure. This intricate internet of pursuits and contradictions leaves Syria’s future precarious and fraught with challenges.
If the brand new Syrian authorities can overcome inner divisions and obtain consensus, this might mark the start of a profound transformation for the nation. Restoring political stability would open the door to improved relations with the West and key world gamers similar to Russia and China. Such progress may result in the gradual lifting of worldwide sanctions, permitting Syria to draw substantial monetary sources to rebuild its infrastructure, financial system, and social establishments.
Syria’s integration into regional political processes may strengthen ties with Arab international locations, together with the Gulf states, which have the monetary capability and expertise to put money into difficult circumstances. Nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE may play a pivotal position in long-term investments, notably within the power sector, agriculture, and infrastructure – key drivers of financial progress. Strengthened political and financial ties with neighboring international locations would improve regional safety and create favorable circumstances for the return of refugees.
Equally vital can be fostering relations with ethno-religious teams inside the nation, such because the Druze, whose help is essential for sustaining stability in southern areas. Historically impartial in conflicts, the Druze wield vital affect in Syria’s political panorama, notably in mild of potential negotiations with Israel. If Syria manages to ascertain even minimal dialogue with Israel geared toward de-escalating tensions, it may additional contribute to regional stability. Regardless of the advanced historical past between the 2 nations, Israel might have an curiosity in lowering threats from radical teams working in Syria. Furthermore, the Druze, residing in each the Israel-occupied Golan Heights and elsewhere in Syria, may function an important bridge on this course of.
Nevertheless, if Syrian authorities fail to realize unity and consensus amongst numerous factions, the nation dangers a darker situation. Persistent inner conflicts may plunge Syria again into civil conflict, resulting in the additional collapse of state establishments and social order. This situation may consequence within the fragmentation of Syria into a number of components. Within the south, tribal teams and Druze communities might assert larger autonomy and pursue unbiased political agendas. The jap areas, with remnants of Islamic State and US-backed Kurdish forces, may evolve into autonomous territories. In the meantime, the north may stay underneath the affect of Türkiye and its allied opposition factions.
A fragmented Syria would severely complicate efforts at reconstruction, resulting in extra humanitarian crises. The financial system would collapse additional, and the nation would lose alternatives for substantial worldwide assist and funding. Furthermore, a destabilized Syria may immediate Israel to strengthen its army presence within the Golan Heights, fearing threats from radical teams, additional exacerbating regional tensions.
Thus, political unity and a willingness to interact in dialogue – each inside Syria and with exterior actors, together with the Druze and Israel – are vital to the nation’s future. Solely by way of inner consensus and balanced overseas coverage can Syria seize the distinctive alternative to rebuild and reintegrate into the worldwide neighborhood. In any other case, it dangers sinking deeper into disaster, with far-reaching penalties for its individuals and the broader area.
Syria is on the verge of changing into a failed state. There’s just one method to put it aside
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