Word – Killing of Top Hamas Leader in Iran Raises Risk of Wider War: Live Updates
Ismail Haniyeh was the top figure managing Hamas’s international relations and one of the group’s most recognizable faces worldwide. From his base in Doha, Qatar, he helped lead Hamas in high-stakes negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza, and he delivered fiery speeches broadcast throughout the Arab world.
But his killing in Iran, for which Tehran and Hamas blamed Israel, is unlikely to destabilize Hamas in the long term, analysts say, noting that the group has recovered from past assassinations of political and military leaders.
“His assassination is a major blow,” Ibrahim Madhoun, an Istanbul-based analyst close to Hamas, said in an interview. But, he added, “Hamas has faced this situation in the past” and “came out of those scenarios stronger.”
The long list of Hamas leaders killed by Israel includes Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’s founder and spiritual leader, in 2004; Salah Shehadeh, the founder of Hamas’s armed wing, in 2002; Abdel Aziz Rantisi, a senior Hamas leader in Gaza, in 2004; and Ahmed al-Jabari, a top commander, in 2012.
For decades, Mr. Haniyeh’s name was synonymous with that of Hamas as he served in some of the most prominent positions in the group. He also played a balancing role between Hamas’s military and political wings.
But a reliance by Hamas on its institutions, and not specific individuals, has helped it overcome the killings of its leaders in the past, said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science from Gaza City.
“There’s a focus on certain people in Hamas,” he said. “But the absence of these people doesn’t lead to a vacuum, because Hamas has institutions and these institutions are ready to fill any vacuum.”
The next political chief for Hamas is likely to be a figure based outside the West Bank and Gaza because the position often requires travel. When Mr. Haniyeh was first elected to head the Hamas political office, he stayed in Gaza City, his hometown, but later relocated with some of his family members to Doha.
Hamas’s Shura Council will likely choose the next leader, according to Mr. Madhoun and Azzam Tamimi, an author of a book about Hamas.
Khaled Meshal, a former chief of the political office, is among the contenders to replace Mr. Haniyeh. Mr. Meshal has long been based in Doha and would often sit beside Mr. Haniyeh in meetings with visiting ministers and dignitaries.
“He can muster more unanimity in Hamas than anyone else,” said Mr. Tamimi who has been a friend of Mr. Meshal for decades.
Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khalil al-Hayya, both senior Hamas officials in Doha, also might be part of the discussion, said Mr. Tamimi.
As Hamas assesses its leadership ranks, the loss of Mr. Haniyeh will be felt in the short term.
In recent months, Mr. Haniyeh had been dedicating much of his time to communicating with Qatari and Egyptian mediators about achieving a cease-fire, transmitting Hamas’s positions following internal discussions.
Hamas, Mr. Abusada said, was likely to pull out of the cease-fire talks with Israel, at least for a few days or weeks, but it would ultimately have to return to stop the war and provide Palestinians in Gaza with a reprieve.
The group has few cards to play in responding to Mr. Haniyeh’s assassination on its own, as it has been at war with Israel for nearly 10 months.
“Its choices are limited,” he said, noting that Hamas’s military wing had been weakened in Gaza. The group, he said, could decide to respond by launching an attack in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Mr. Abusada said, however, that if Iran throws its weight behind a response, especially given that the assassination was inside its borders, it could pose a much more significant challenge to Israel.
Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting.
