Word – Venezuela Awaits Result in Pivotal Election That Could Oust Autocrat

They arrived at polling stations long before dawn, slept in the streets so they could be the first in line, and then cried as they cast their votes.

On Sunday, millions of Venezuelans headed to the ballot box in an election that will determine the fate of the socialist movement that has governed oil-rich, crisis-laden Venezuela for 25 years.

By 8 p.m., most polling stations had closed, and the nation waited with apprehension for the country’s electoral body, headed by an acolyte of the ruling party, to announce the result.

For the first time in more than a decade, the country’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, faced a strong challenger, Edmundo González, a previously little-known former diplomat who has the backing of a popular leader, María Corina Machado.

The vote represents an existential moment for Chavismo, the socialist movement that swept to power in Venezuela in 1999. Founded by former President Hugo Chávez, Mr. Maduro’s mentor, the movement promised to lift millions out of poverty.

For a time, it did. But, over the course of a generation, the movement shattered the nation’s democracy, presided over an economic contraction unlike any seen outside of war and became the source of one of the largest migrant crises in the world.

The country’s travails have drawn voters to Ms. Machado, a conservative former lawmaker who has promised to restore democracy and bring millions of Venezuelans back home. When the government barred her from running, her coalition managed to get Mr. González on the ballot instead.

On Sunday, turnout appeared to be high.

“There could be an earthquake, a landslide, rain — and we are going to vote,” said Henry Mayora, 74, who arrived at his polling station in Caracas, the capital, at 2:30 a.m., hours before polls opened at 6.

Mr. Mayora, who walks with a cane and said he supports the opposition, was first in his line to cast a ballot.

For years the government of Mr. Maduro has used coercion, suppression and confusion to win elections. And throughout the day on Sunday, there were many complaints of problems with the vote, including polling places that opened hours late and voting machines that did not work.

Phil Gunson, a longtime analyst in Venezuela for International Crisis Group, said the irregularities were “within the ‘normal’ range” for an election in Venezuela in recent years.

Mr. Maduro has rarely, if ever, mentioned an outcome in which his party loses. In one recent campaign speech, he threatened that there would be a “blood bath” if his party lost.

But on Sunday, speaking to reporters, he appeared to strike a more conciliatory tone.

“I recognize and will recognize the electoral arbiter,” he said, a reference to the country’s election body, “and I will make the electoral arbiter’s holy word be respected.”

The electoral council is headed by a longtime member of Mr. Maduro’s party, Elvis Amoroso.

At the Liceo Andrés Bello, a voting center in Caracas, a journalist with The New York Times watched roughly 15 men in unmarked black jackets temporarily block access to the center in the early morning. One volunteer vote monitor was punched.

Finally the crowd erupted in a chant — “We want to vote!” — and a long line of people began moving inside, more than an hour and a half after the official start of the balloting.

In the city of Maturín, in the east, a woman was hit by a bullet when men on motorcycles passed by a line of people waiting to vote, according to a former lawmaker, María Gabriela Hernández, who was at the scene.

In one voting place in the city of Carúpano, in the north, citizens and local journalists said that government security forces had tried to remove a vote monitor allied with the opposition and replace the person with a monitor lacking credentials from the country’s electoral body.

In the nearby city of Cumaná, five people said that a new unofficial voting station had been installed in a community center. A journalist working for The New York Times who tried to enter the site was blocked by supporters of the government.

At another polling place in Cumaná, roughly 50 armed police officers and national guardsmen had formed a long line outside by midmorning, wearing helmets and bullet-resistant vests, clearly projecting the state’s strength to anyone considering voting against those in power.

In the city of Maracaibo, in the west, voters reported having their voting places moved without their knowledge. Sonia Gómez, 65, said she had checked the election council website on Saturday to verify her polling station. But when she arrived on Sunday, election workers told her she was registered somewhere else.

“They moved us older people because they know we don’t have that much energy,” she said, “but I’m going to look for someone to take me to vote.”

In other places, voting went more smoothly. At one of Caracas’s largest voting centers, in the working-class Petare neighborhood, Rony Velázquez, a personal trainer, said he chose to vote for the government.

He said that he was sympathetic to the opposition but sought improvements within the current political system, out of fear that a different government would plunge the country into a new period of uncertainty.

“It would take them years to change things,” he said.

In an interview a day before the vote, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, a legislator and the son of the president, said he was sure his father would win re-election.

“We are confident in the victory, not because we are triumphalists, but because we have done our homework,” he said. But, in the case of a loss, “we will recognize the result and become the opposition,” he said. “Life goes on.”

If the main opposition candidate, Mr. González, wins and is allowed to take office, he is likely to face immense challenges, including the fact that nearly all institutions — including the legislature — remain loyal to Mr. Maduro.

Mr. Chávez, the founder of the country’s socialist project, swept to power in 1999 following a democratic election, vowing to remake a system led by a corrupt elite. Today, his movement runs a state widely viewed as corrupt, his party’s leaders are the elite — and Ms. Machado is promising to oust them.

Mr. Maduro has maintained his grip by punishing dissidents, crushing protests and co-opting state institutions. At the same time, the socialist model he once hailed has given way to brutal capitalism, economists say, with a small state-connected minority controlling much of the nation’s wealth.

Mr. Maduro is holding an election in part because of international pressure: The United States has promised to lift punishing economic sanctions on the country’s oil industry only if a competitive presidential vote is held.

Many analysts say Mr. Maduro never thought Ms. Machado and Mr. González would gain so much momentum.

And many in Venezuela believe that Mr. Maduro has little incentive to allow for a result that shows he has lost. The United States has accused him of narco-trafficking and has offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest. The International Criminal Court is investigating him for crimes against humanity. Both make him vulnerable to prosecution if he leaves office.

Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist and professor of international affairs at the University of Denver, said he could foresee three possible outcomes.

First, the vote could represent the beginning of a democratic transition. Second, it could completely consolidate Mr. Maduro’s power.

Or, he said, “this could be — and is what I fear most — the moment of an escalation and a deepening of the conflict, the destructive conflict that continues to do more damage to society and the Venezuelan economy.”

Whatever result is announced, it is very likely to be disputed by the other side, possibly leading to protest and a violent response from the armed forces.

The next president wouldn’t assume power until January, leaving a lengthy period of uncertainty.

In recent interviews across the country, some supporters of Ms. Machado vowed to take to the streets if Mr. Maduro declared victory.

Luis Bravo, who attended a recent Machado campaign event, said that if Mr. Maduro claimed a win and protests began, he would join them.

“I am praying that it doesn’t come to that because, obviously, a lot of people are going to die. But if I have to, I have to.”

Isayen Herrera and Alejandro Cegarra contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela, Nayrobis Rodríguez from Sucre, Venezuela, and Genevieve Glatsky from Bogotá, Colombia.